Daily Technical Analysis – Action Forex | Jewelry Dukan


Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by low volatility as the bears failed to gain enough momentum to continue the downside move and the pair found a strong zone of support around 0.9959. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trapped in the tight 0.9960 – 1.0025 range. It is highly likely that this consolidation phase will continue into the early hours of today’s trading before a potential downtrend resume. While forecasts remain negative, should the single European currency depreciate further, the bulls would most likely attempt to take control of the market and target resistance at 1.0025 where a successful break could lead to a deeper correction culminating in targeting next resistance at 1.0078. On the other hand, if the local resistance at 1.0025 withstands the bulls’ pressure or the sellers manage to keep the price below the key resistance at 1.0078, then a new wave of sell-offs is very likely to lead the price towards the lows 0.9877. However, this scenario can only materialize if the bears manage to scale the lower bound of the range at 0.9960. Today at 12:30 GMT, expect increased volatility around the release of US Initial Jobless Claims. Better than expected data could trigger an impulse move and give the bulls the incentive they need to attack the 0.9877 low and even the 0.9812 low.


During yesterday’s trading session, the bears again managed to thwart the bulls’ charge around the 144.90 resistance and the ninja rallied convincingly to reach the 142.68 support. In fact, the bulls appear to be losing momentum just above the mentioned support and it looks like the pair has found itself in a brief consolidation in the 142.68 – 143.49 range. Forecasts for today’s trading session see the bears attempting to take the price out of this channel and heading the pair for a test of the critical support at 141.64. In the opposite direction, if the bulls manage to clear the upper border of the range and take the price above 144.00, then we could see another bull attack on the critical resistance at 144.93.


The situation in GBP/USD is very similar to EUR/USD. After yesterday’s sharp drop, the bulls managed to limit the sell-off to just above the 1.1475 support zone. Furthermore, the sterling partially recovered from its recent losses and tested the psychological level at 1.1600 but the bulls failed to gain enough momentum to hurt it. At the time of writing, the pair is holding just below the mentioned resistance and it is very likely that the pair will start consolidation in the interval between 1.1475 and 1.1600 before investors finally start assessing the pair’s future path define. In essence, current market sentiment is for the downtrend to continue, but only if the bears manage to successfully break the critical support at 1.1475. If this happens, it could be seen as a good opportunity for the sellers to reinforce negative expectations and steer the price towards a test of the 1.1400 psychological level.


The EUGERMANY40 posted modest gains in European trading, managing to erase some of yesterday’s losses. After the worse-than-expected CPI read, the index plunged along with other global markets on speculation that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance longer than expected. The price of the index is approaching the critical support level at 13000, so forecasts for today’s trading session should be tested at this level. If the price falls below that, we can expect further depreciation towards the next key support at 12717, which is a logical scenario given the ongoing supply problems, rising energy prices and inflation rates and the resulting macroeconomic situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, before deciding to go short, investors should consider the possibility of the 13000 support holding back bear pressure and a brief consolidation forming in the 12979 – 13190 interval before a potential downtrend resume space. On the upside, the first key resistance is found at 13190, followed by the 13346 level.


Both European markets and the US blue-chip stock index ended lower, with the index down around 4.5% of its value. However, the bulls managed to limit the sell off at the 30975 support level and at the time of writing the analysis the US30 is trading in a very tight range in the 30975 – 31291 channel while the market is taking a breather after yesterday’s sharp drop. A successful break of the 30975 support would give investors the necessary incentive to attack the next significant levels at 30700 and 30500. An alternative scenario where the bulls manage to take control and breach the resistance at 31291 would easily lead to a deeper correction towards the 31629 level. Today is marked with an increase in volatility around the release of the data on initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia FED survey and Empire State manufacturing indices, and US retail sales data, all of which are scheduled for 12:30 GMT.

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