MDA Breakout Stocks Week 38 – September 2022: Short Term Tips To Give You The Edge – Seek Alpha | Jewelry Dukan

jacoblund/iStock via Getty Images


The Weekly Breakout Prediction continues my 7+ year research analysis of MDA breakout picks. This subset of the various portfolios that I regularly analyze has now passed 260 weeks of public selection Part of this ongoing live forward testing research. The frequency of returns of over 10% in a week averages over 4 times the broad market average over the past 5+ years.

In 2017 the sample size started at 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and since 2020 I’ve only been generating 4 selections per week at the request of members. It also provides 2 Dow 30 picks as well as a new active ETF portfolio competing against a signal ETF model. Monthly Growth and Dividend MDA Breakout stocks continue to outperform the market each year. I offer 11 top models of short and long term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since I’ve traded the S&P 500 since my trading studies were published.

market prospects

The Momentum Gauges®, Economic Events and Weekly Market Outlook are now broken down into weekly articles here, which also includes my new weekly technical market updates. Currently, we are heading towards the Fed’s largest scheduled quantitative tightening event for September in US history:

Momentum Gauges® brake light Signals for week 38 with all gauges turning more bearish ahead of week 38 and Wednesday’s Fed FOMC rate decision.

Momentum gauge stoplight signals

Current returns

In a brief study of MDA breakout picks YTD, there are 100 picks in 37 weeks that beat the S&P 500. 59 are picks that beat the S&P 500 by over 10% by double digits. Top MDA winners include (CLFD) +48.9%, (RES) +64.9%, (VRDN) +70.8%, (TDW) +100.5, (TA) +58.9% . A full 115 weekly picks beat the Nasdaq YTD, which is down -26.8%.

2022 MDA Breakout returns

For more background, measurements, and high-frequency breakout recordings on the weekly MDA breakout model, see: Value And Momentum MDA Breakouts +70.5% In 52 Weeks: Final 2021 Year End Report Card

2022 Weekly First Half Returns Results

Returns of the first half with all weekly returns on the V&M dashboard

Weekly MDA Breakout returns 1st half of 2022

The red weekly color indicates negative signals from the market momentum gauge. MDA breakout selections will outperform when the market signal is positive and daily negatives are below the 40 level.

Historical performance measurements

The minimum buy/hold yields of the historical MDA breakout are +70.5% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks that coincide with the positive signals from Momentum Gauges®. Notably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4 or 5 day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels of over 80%, not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.

Annual MDA returns

Long term many of these picks are now joining the V&M Multibagger list of 113 weekly picks with over 100% gains, 54 picks with over 200% gains, 18 picks with over 500% gains and 11 picks with over 1000% gains since January 2019 such as :

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) +2119.4%
  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +2,042.5%
  • Intrepid Potash (IPI) +1,111.4%
  • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) +1079.4%
  • Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) +1008.7%

Since this MDA test began in 2017, more than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week. A frequency comparison table is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks and may not be suitable for achieving your long-term investment goals: This is how you achieve optimal asset allocation

The week 38 – 2022 breakout stocks for next week are:

Next week’s pick consists of 2 stocks from healthcare, 1 financials and 1 technology sector. These shares are pre-released to members near open for the best gains every Friday morning. Previous picks may perform well, but for research purposes I purposely do not duplicate picks from the previous week. These picks are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong cash flows, positive sentiment and strong fundamentals – but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.

  1. NetScout Systems (NTCT) – Technology / Software – Infrastructure
  2. ProPhase Labs (PRPH) – Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers

NetScout systems – Technology / Software – Infrastructure

NTCT chart

Price target: $38.00/share (see my FAQ #20 on price targets)

(Source: Company Resources)

NetScout Systems, Inc. provides service assurance and cybersecurity solutions to protect digital business services from disruptions in the United States, Europe, Asia and internationally. The Company offers nGeniusONE management software that enables customers to predict, anticipate and resolve network and service delivery problems and facilitate optimization and capacity planning of their network infrastructures; and specialized platforms and analysis modules that allow its customers to analyze and troubleshoot traffic in radio access and Wi-Fi networks.

NTCT Stock Rover data report

ProPhase Labs – Healthcare/Drug Manufacturers

PRPH chart

Price target: $15.00/share (see my FAQ #20 on price targets)

(Source: Company Resources)

ProPhase Labs, Inc. is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, distribution, marketing and sale of over-the-counter (OTC) consumer health products and dietary supplements in the United States. The Company operates through two segments, Diagnostic Services and Consumer Products. (Source: StockRover)

PRPH Stock Rover Report

Top Dow 30 Stocks to Watch in Week 38

First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to just 30 stocks in the Dow Index. Conditions have given the stock market its worst first half since 1970. Second, these selections are made without considering market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks, which can produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks.

The latest selections from the Dow weekly selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:

symbol company Current % return from selection week
(MSFT) microsoft corp -7.46%
(CAT) Caterpillar Inc. -5.29%
(AAPL) apple inc -5.35%
(CVX) chevron corp -0.37%
(JPM) JPMorgan Chase & Co. +2.10%
(DOW) dow inc -14.76%
MRK Merck & Co. -4.50%
(AMGN) Amgen, Inc. -7.73%
(MCD) McDonald’s Corporation -2.21%
(MRK) Merck & Co. -2.11%

If you’re looking for a much broader selection of large-cap breakout stocks beyond the weekly stocks, I recommend these long-term portfolios. The new mid-year picks were released to members in early July:

Piotroski-Graham increased value

  • July up +3.04%
  • January portfolio outperforms S&P 500 by +25.98% YTD.

Positive forensic

  • Drop in July -11.36%
  • January Positive Forensic beats S&P 500 by +2.73% YTD.

Negative forensic

  • July up +30.15%
  • January Negative Forensic beats S&P 500 by +22.12% YTD

Growth & Dividend Mega Cap Breakouts

  • August up +1.89%
  • January portfolio outperforms S&P 500 by +8.62% YTD

This long-term selection significantly outperforms many large hedge funds and all hedge fund averages since inception. Consider actively managed ARK Innovation Fund down -54.98% YTD, Tiger Global Management -52% YTD, RTW Investment Group -34% YTD.

Next week’s Dow picks are:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Johnson & Johnson is one of the few Dow 30 picks in breakout conditions above June’s long negative channel. Indicators all turn positive with strong net MFI inflows with analyst consensus target around 187/share. Institutions are net buyers in the current quarter.

JNJ chart

Background on momentum breakout stocks

As I’ve documented through my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed to be high frequency gainers.

These documented high-frequency gains in less than a week are continuing into 2020 at rates more than four times the average stock market returns versus comparable stocks with a minimum of $2/share and a market cap of $100 million . The improved gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in each category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card

The frequency percentages are very similar to the returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017, at rates exceeding the gains of market returns by 2x and in the case of 5% gains even 5x.

Frequency Breakout Tables MDA Breakouts

(value and momentum breakouts)

The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.

Frequency Breakout Tables 2020 / 2021

MDA selection is limited to stocks over $2/share, $100M market cap and greater than 100,000 average daily volume. Penny stocks trading well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model, but carry much higher risk and can be skewed by inflows from readers picking the same micro-cap stocks.


These stocks continue live forward testing of my PhD breakout selection algorithms with continuous improvements over the past several years. These weekly breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks from seven quantitative models I publish from top-tier financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investment decisions for the best results.

All V&M portfolio models beat market indices with worst 6-month start since 1970. New mid-year value Portfolios have risen sharply to start the next long-term buy/hold period.

The VM breakout portfolio yields YTD 2022

The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models as of January last year are shown below.

2021 VMBbreakout portfolio returns

All the best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a great trading week!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS

Leave a Comment